Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     58.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  31.6  35.0  36.5  36.5  35.8  32.0  33.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  21.0  16.0  11.0  13.0  16.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 130.1 134.6 134.6 123.6 123.6 130.1 139.3  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  17.0   0.0 -22.0 -32.0 -26.0  -7.0  -2.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  42.0  42.0  47.0  49.0  52.0  55.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.8  31.6  35.0  36.5  36.5  35.8  32.0  33.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%