Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     58.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  36.3  38.6  41.5  39.2  38.3  37.8  34.2  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  28.0  16.0  11.0  17.0  17.0  19.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.3 139.3 137.0 127.9 130.1 134.6 140.0 123.6  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -3.0 -12.0 -28.0 -23.0  -3.0  -3.0   7.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  39.0  40.0  40.0  41.0  43.0  49.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.3  36.3  38.6  41.5  39.2  38.3  37.8  34.2  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.9%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%