Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     56.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  36.4  37.2  35.1  36.9  37.5  35.5  33.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  13.0  10.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  15.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        144.3 142.0 137.3 137.3 137.3 144.3 107.7  92.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -28.0 -31.0 -30.0   4.0  11.0   9.0  17.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  40.0  42.0  45.0  51.0  54.0  61.0  60.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.6  36.4  37.2  35.1  36.9  37.5  35.5  33.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%