Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     55.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  31.7  32.8  35.7  39.2  41.4  36.6  36.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  13.0  16.0  14.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.1 128.6 137.3 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  -3.0  -8.0  19.0  37.0  44.0  38.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  45.0  46.0  51.0  52.0  57.0  57.0  61.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.2  31.7  32.8  35.7  39.2  41.4  36.6  36.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%