Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042019 191102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     55.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  32.8  34.4  35.9  34.2  31.7  31.2  29.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.5  15.0  15.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.7 132.9 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -25.0   5.0   9.0  20.0  45.0  34.0  16.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  49.0  51.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  54.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.5  32.8  34.4  35.9  34.2  31.7  31.2  29.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        2.8%        2.0%