Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191030 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     74.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  34.3  32.7  32.7  30.4  29.0  29.0  29.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  23.0  33.0  52.0  46.0  34.0  30.0  32.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 112.3 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  76.0  67.0  57.0  43.0  28.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  83.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  69.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.8  34.3  32.7  32.7  30.4  29.0  29.0  29.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.6%        4.1%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       15.5%       23.6%       19.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.1%       10.5%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.9%       10.5%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        6.9%        5.0%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h        8.4%       20.5%       14.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        7.5%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        5.8%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.8%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%