Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     70.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  14.7  13.4  16.0  19.6  16.8  16.7  19.2  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  27.0  21.0  19.0  20.0  20.0  17.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 103.6  97.4  95.5  93.5  91.6  93.5  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   7.0   4.0   5.0  -6.0  -6.0 -14.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  53.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.7  14.7  13.4  16.0  19.6  16.8  16.7  19.2  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.0%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       12.6%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        5.6%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.6%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.7%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       10.9%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        4.5%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        2.9%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.5%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        2.6%        2.1%