Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     69.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  11.7  12.1  14.2  15.0  12.7  12.6  17.2  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  16.0  17.0  20.0  20.0  16.0  14.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5  97.4  95.5  93.5  95.5  95.5  93.5  91.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   3.0   5.0  -3.0 -15.0  -8.0  -5.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.8  11.7  12.1  14.2  15.0  12.7  12.6  17.2  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.5%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       10.6%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        4.6%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       11.6%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        5.3%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        3.3%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        1.8%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        3.7%        3.0%