Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  11.6  14.6  13.9  17.9  18.3  20.2  25.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  16.0  19.0  21.0  19.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4  97.4  95.5  95.5  97.4  97.4  95.5  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  13.0   6.0 -14.0  -4.0   0.0  -5.0 -21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  45.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.1  11.6  14.6  13.9  17.9  18.3  20.2  25.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.3%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        9.1%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        1.0%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        9.1%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        2.1%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        1.1%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%