Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     68.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  15.7  17.7  20.0  19.0  19.5  25.7  23.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  22.0  23.0  18.0  15.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.5  83.5  81.6  81.6  81.6  79.8  78.0  76.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  -3.0 -13.0   1.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.4  15.7  17.7  20.0  19.0  19.5  25.7  23.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%        9.5%       10.2%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%       21.5%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%       14.3%       11.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       14.3%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.2%        4.0%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       19.4%       11.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%       11.5%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        2.5%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%