Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     67.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  14.7  17.9  16.0  16.7  21.8  21.7  20.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  19.0  15.0  12.0  10.0   9.0   6.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.5  76.6  74.8  73.0  71.2  69.4  66.0  64.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  -5.0   4.0  -2.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  37.0  40.0  38.0  37.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.6  14.7  17.9  16.0  16.7  21.8  21.7  20.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.5%        6.5%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.2%       12.5%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%        6.9%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%        6.9%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%        2.3%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%        9.0%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        4.6%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%