Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     67.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  16.4  14.4  14.1  19.6  20.0  13.1  15.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  14.0  11.0  10.0   8.0   6.0   2.0   5.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.6  69.8  68.0  66.2  64.4  61.0  59.3  56.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   1.0   2.0  -5.0   9.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  45.0  43.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.3  16.4  14.4  14.1  19.6  20.0  13.1  15.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.4%        4.6%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%        8.6%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%        4.2%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%        4.0%        5.8%
 40kt / 24h        7.5%        1.5%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        5.1%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%        2.1%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%