Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     66.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  12.2  20.2  17.6  16.2  19.8  24.0  29.5  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   2.0   5.3   8.5  11.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.0  63.0  59.4  56.0  52.7  49.6  49.6  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -15.0  12.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  46.0  46.0  48.0  46.0  52.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.3  12.2  20.2  17.6  16.2  19.8  24.0  29.5  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.0%        5.1%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%        6.7%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        3.8%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        3.8%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.2%        1.2%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        3.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%