Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.1  14.9  16.3  15.8  20.4  26.9  31.7  36.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.7  46.0  42.7  42.7  42.7  41.1  42.7  49.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0   1.0  -1.0  -4.0   3.0   0.0  -8.0  10.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  39.0  37.0  35.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.1  14.9  16.3  15.8  20.4  26.9  31.7  36.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.1%       14.0%       22.5%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%       12.6%       12.3%
 30kt / 24h       12.0%        9.5%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%        9.5%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%