Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     66.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.7  40.1  46.2  51.0  52.9  60.0  69.0  75.6 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  20.0  29.0  33.0  43.0  63.0  60.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         84.4  99.6 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0 -30.0 -41.0 -42.0 -36.0 -30.0 -16.0 -43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  34.0  32.0  30.0  23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  49.7  40.1  46.2  51.0  52.9  60.0  69.0  75.6 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%