Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     66.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.0  46.5  51.9  55.6  57.4  67.2  75.8  77.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  29.0  32.0  38.0  52.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        107.3 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -35.0 -39.0 -34.0 -36.0 -30.0 -16.0 -43.0 -39.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  39.0  36.0  31.0  28.0  28.0  23.0  18.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  40.0  46.5  51.9  55.6  57.4  67.2  75.8  77.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%