Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     67.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.1  54.2  55.4  55.1  64.9  73.5  72.3  72.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  30.0  35.0  48.0  60.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        112.3 114.6 101.5  95.5  89.8  77.7  81.0  86.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -38.0 -30.0 -29.0   0.0 -15.0 -18.0  -6.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  34.0  30.0  28.0  27.0  22.0  18.0  18.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  49.1  54.2  55.4  55.1  64.9  73.5  72.3  72.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%