Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052019 191106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     68.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.5  53.7  55.4  64.2  71.0  69.4  69.5  68.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  25.0  30.0  37.0  39.0  41.0  35.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 132.0 132.0 125.1 122.9 120.7 129.6 135.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -37.0 -28.0 -31.0   0.0 -15.0 -17.0 -27.0   3.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  29.0  27.0  25.0  20.0  18.0  17.0  16.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  53.5  53.7  55.4  64.2  71.0  69.4  69.5  68.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%