Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062019 191203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.80     57.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  35.3  32.9  32.9  35.2  35.5  36.6  36.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  44.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 124.6 124.6 122.3 120.1 117.9 113.6 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  62.0  45.0  54.0  46.0  57.0  43.0  32.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  53.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.6  35.3  32.9  32.9  35.2  35.5  36.6  36.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        7.1%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.7%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        6.0%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        1.4%        1.9%