Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062019 191203 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.00     57.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.0  30.7  30.9  32.3  29.5  23.8  25.0  28.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  45.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 124.6 122.3 122.3 120.1 117.9 113.6 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  90.0  62.0  35.0  33.0  29.0  11.0  12.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.0  30.7  30.9  32.3  29.5  23.8  25.0  28.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.4%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        1.3%        1.7%