Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062019 191206 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.90     53.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  21.3  19.0  16.1  18.6  23.9  29.0  31.5  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.8  98.0  80.0  55.7  42.6  39.1  37.1  44.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  56.0  18.0   0.0  18.0  10.0 -17.0 -36.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.3  21.3  19.0  16.1  18.6  23.9  29.0  31.5  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%