Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062019 191206 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20     50.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  19.7  15.6  16.5  20.5  22.5  24.0  25.6  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -7.0 -13.0 -19.0 -13.0 -36.0  -2.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  19.7  15.6  16.5  20.5  22.5  24.0  25.6  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        4.2%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%       22.7%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%       12.1%        9.1%
 35kt / 24h        6.1%       12.1%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        6.1%        4.0%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       21.8%       13.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        9.8%        6.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        7.6%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%