Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO072019 191204 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     69.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  37.1  43.8  39.2  41.2  43.1  42.3  48.3  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 107.9 103.6  99.4  97.4  95.5  93.5  89.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  42.0  18.0  11.0   5.0  19.0  18.0   3.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  73.0  68.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.4  37.1  43.8  39.2  41.2  43.1  42.3  48.3  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%