Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO072019 191204 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     68.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  34.4  36.4  35.8  36.2  34.5  33.0  31.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  24.0  24.0  29.0  32.0  30.0  25.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 113.6 111.5 109.4 109.4 107.4 103.5  96.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  25.0  24.0  44.0  41.0  24.0  16.0   0.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.3  34.4  36.4  35.8  36.2  34.5  33.0  31.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%