Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112019 190812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  11.8  11.3  16.1  18.8  19.1  17.7  18.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  28.0  33.0  33.0  34.0  35.0  36.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.3 112.0 114.3 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0   8.0   4.0  -3.0  18.0  16.0 -28.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.1  11.8  11.3  16.1  18.8  19.1  17.7  18.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.0%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%       13.2%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        5.6%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        5.1%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%        8.6%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        2.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        7.1%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%