Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112019 190813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40    135.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6   8.6  13.4  17.2  17.9  15.2  18.4  22.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  31.0  31.0  34.0  40.0  34.0  22.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 117.0 114.6 110.1 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   2.0  16.0   9.0  11.0 -14.0   5.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.6   8.6  13.4  17.2  17.9  15.2  18.4  22.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%       12.5%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.9%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        4.5%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%        8.0%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        2.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        5.8%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%