Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112019 190813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    134.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    163.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  16.7  17.1  18.1  18.4  19.6  23.2  30.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  33.0  40.0  33.0  21.0   9.0  14.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 114.6 110.1  99.4  82.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  12.0  26.0  13.0   8.0  10.0  48.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.2  16.7  17.1  18.1  18.4  19.6  23.2  30.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        3.0%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       18.3%       11.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        8.4%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%        8.4%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       11.6%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        3.8%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        4.5%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%