Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112019 190813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    134.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  16.1  12.5  11.8  16.7  16.6  16.9  18.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  34.0  37.0  26.0  16.0   7.0  23.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 119.3 114.6 110.1 105.7 105.7 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  34.0  19.0   6.0  34.0  49.0  28.0  14.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.6  16.1  12.5  11.8  16.7  16.6  16.9  18.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.9%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.7%       24.4%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h        8.1%       11.9%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        8.1%       11.9%       10.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        5.3%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       17.8%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%        6.7%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%       10.3%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        2.3%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%