Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112019 190814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.40    132.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    170.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  16.0  10.7   9.1  13.7  22.2  25.5  28.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  20.0   5.0  17.0   5.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9  91.6  99.4 105.7 112.3  95.5  53.2  29.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  55.0  61.0  48.0  43.0  63.0  51.0  56.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  76.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.2  16.0  10.7   9.1  13.7  22.2  25.5  28.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        7.1%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        2.4%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        2.4%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        6.1%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        0.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.3%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%