Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112019 190815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.90    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.6  26.9  30.4  34.9  42.9  41.2  47.2  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.0 112.3  99.4  56.7  38.3  31.2  26.4  18.7  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  22.0  75.0 113.0  81.0  77.0  45.0  23.0  U  U  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  17.6  26.9  30.4  34.9  42.9  41.2  47.2  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%