Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112019 190815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.90    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  25.3  30.2  34.8  37.5  41.3  46.2  45.7  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.3 102.4  61.7  40.8  35.4  30.2  25.1  16.3  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  50.0  75.0  92.0  95.0  77.0  41.0  19.0  U  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  71.0  74.0  71.0  62.0  46.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.9  25.3  30.2  34.8  37.5  41.3  46.2  45.7  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%