Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122019 190821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  35.9  35.5  34.4  30.2  31.6  33.9  31.4  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  88.0  81.0  80.0  72.0  50.0  46.0  42.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 125.0 114.0 105.0  52.0  15.0  -6.0 -33.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.5  35.9  35.5  34.4  30.2  31.6  33.9  31.4  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.1%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       15.9%       23.8%       19.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.4%        6.9%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        6.9%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        4.1%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.9%       26.7%       18.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%        9.6%        7.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.7%        9.1%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.0%        3.7%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        4.0%        3.9%