Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122019 190822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  19.2  19.4  25.2  24.9  26.1  28.8  34.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  79.0  71.0  63.0  72.0  71.0  52.0  30.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  48.0  63.0  67.0  34.0  49.0  42.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  65.0  66.0  72.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.1  19.2  19.4  25.2  24.9  26.1  28.8  34.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.2%       14.2%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h       38.8%       51.7%       45.2%
 30kt / 24h       26.7%       32.3%       29.5%
 35kt / 24h       19.8%       32.3%       26.1%
 40kt / 24h        7.7%       22.2%       15.0%
 45kt / 36h       29.8%       45.1%       37.5%
 55kt / 36h       20.3%       24.4%       22.4%
 55kt / 48h       21.6%       19.0%       20.3%
 70kt / 48h       13.5%        6.4%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%        7.7%        6.7%