Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122019 190822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  25.8  29.0  33.3  33.4  41.7  41.8  37.3  N  N  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  75.0  74.0  89.0  96.0  76.0  47.0  36.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  16.0  14.0  -6.0   0.0  13.0  15.0  -5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.9  25.8  29.0  33.3  33.4  41.7  41.8  37.3  N  N  N  U  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        6.0%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h       15.7%       27.1%       21.4%
 30kt / 24h        9.3%       11.8%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       11.8%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        6.3%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       15.9%       11.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        5.1%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        5.5%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.2%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%