Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122019 190822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    127.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  23.9  26.9  30.6  32.8  38.3  34.3  30.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  75.0  80.0  97.0  84.0  58.0  38.0  28.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  23.0  -9.0  -1.0   0.0  11.0 -13.0 -14.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  73.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  23.9  26.9  30.6  32.8  38.3  34.3  30.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.0%       11.3%       10.7%
 25kt / 24h       26.0%       40.6%       33.3%
 30kt / 24h       15.5%       25.9%       20.7%
 35kt / 24h       13.7%       25.9%       19.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       13.8%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       22.4%       16.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%        9.0%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        9.6%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.9%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%