Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122019 190823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  22.1  23.3  27.9  29.9  27.8  29.5  37.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  84.0  88.0  69.0  62.0  30.0  24.0   6.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 117.0 120.0  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0 -19.0 -19.0   4.0   1.0 -27.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.7  22.1  23.3  27.9  29.9  27.8  29.5  37.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        5.1%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%       24.2%       17.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       10.7%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       10.7%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.4%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       14.0%        9.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%        4.6%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        4.9%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.0%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%