Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122019 190823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    124.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  27.6  30.1  30.2  31.7  36.2  42.8  37.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  58.0  36.0  26.0  27.0  23.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6  92.4  98.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0   0.0   9.0 -17.0 -11.0   5.0 -14.0 -19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.7  27.6  30.1  30.2  31.7  36.2  42.8  37.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%        7.5%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h       11.0%       23.5%       17.3%
 30kt / 24h        9.0%       12.5%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.0%       12.5%       10.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.2%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       11.0%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        3.7%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%