Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122019 190823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    123.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  28.4  22.5  28.0  38.5  40.3  37.8  42.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  73.0  28.0  23.0  24.0  16.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6 100.1  97.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  -4.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.9  28.4  22.5  28.0  38.5  40.3  37.8  42.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.0%        9.7%       11.8%
 25kt / 24h       20.2%       29.2%       24.7%
 30kt / 24h       20.2%       16.8%       18.5%
 35kt / 24h       20.2%       16.8%       18.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        8.7%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       10.9%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        3.6%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%