Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122019 190824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  21.6  27.5  32.3  36.0  33.3  39.5  41.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  30.0  21.0  23.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.6 110.0 109.3  95.7  93.6  83.5  60.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -15.0   0.0  12.0   8.0 -10.0 -13.0 -17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.1  21.6  27.5  32.3  36.0  33.3  39.5  41.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%       10.3%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h       14.3%       26.6%       20.5%
 30kt / 24h       13.1%       17.7%       15.4%
 35kt / 24h       13.1%       17.7%       15.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        6.7%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        9.2%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%