Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122019 190824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  28.2  33.3  36.6  32.8  39.4  42.9  41.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  26.0   8.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 107.0  89.4  85.5  71.0  61.5  53.0  55.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0  -6.0  -9.0   7.0 -10.0 -22.0 -15.0  35.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.2  28.2  33.3  36.6  32.8  39.4  42.9  41.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        4.8%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        8.9%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        4.5%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        4.5%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%