Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132019 190828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    161.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  35.7  37.5  38.7  34.2  37.3  43.4  45.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  22.0  25.0  71.0 109.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 113.6  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  31.0  43.0  18.0   4.0  17.0  38.0  33.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.6  35.7  37.5  38.7  34.2  37.3  43.4  45.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.8%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.3%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%