Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132019 190828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  42.0  41.8  36.3  41.6  48.9  50.6  47.5  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  23.0  42.0  89.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  F  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  84.6  75.8  78.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  37.0  24.0  25.0  35.0  40.0  43.0  57.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.8  42.0  41.8  36.3  41.6  48.9  50.6  47.5  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%