Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132019 190828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  32.0  27.2  26.4  27.8  27.4  25.9  27.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  22.0  24.0  28.0  81.0 103.0 107.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  85.0  72.0  64.0  76.0  72.0  62.0  70.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  82.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.4  32.0  27.2  26.4  27.8  27.4  25.9  27.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        6.1%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        6.6%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        5.0%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.1%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        2.4%        2.2%