Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132019 190829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  32.8  30.7  38.6  40.1  42.6  42.9  43.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  28.0  82.0 104.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 101.6  89.3  86.1  84.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  44.0  39.0  23.0   7.0  32.0  70.0  71.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  78.0  80.0  82.0  81.0  84.0  85.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.2  32.8  30.7  38.6  40.1  42.6  42.9  43.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%