Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132019 190829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  27.6  34.8  37.2  34.2  33.1  40.1  40.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  97.0  84.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 127.0  94.4  87.7  84.6  84.6  86.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  35.0  38.0  14.0  34.0  51.0  59.0  49.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  89.0  90.0  91.0  90.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  27.6  34.8  37.2  34.2  33.1  40.1  40.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.8%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%