Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132019 190829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  34.8  36.1  34.2  31.4  40.1  40.1  29.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  91.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3  81.5  65.5  64.3  67.9  67.9  66.7  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  38.0  14.0  34.0  51.0  59.0  49.0  35.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.3  34.8  36.1  34.2  31.4  40.1  40.1  29.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%