Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132019 190829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    106.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  37.8  34.2  31.7  38.1  38.6  31.8  31.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.4  78.0  80.8  79.4  74.2  71.7  70.5  69.3  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  27.0  19.0  61.0  56.0  53.0  48.0  54.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  86.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.2  37.8  34.2  31.7  38.1  38.6  31.8  31.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%