Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132019 190830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    103.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  34.2  35.1  37.9  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.0 102.7 106.0 114.8 113.0 107.7 107.7 107.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  38.0  60.0  72.0  68.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   90.0  92.0  91.0  89.0  90.0  93.0  93.0  93.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  34.2  35.1  37.9  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%