Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132019 190830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    103.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  38.1  43.6  44.9  45.6  50.6  52.8  52.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.5  93.6  93.6  95.0  96.5  96.5  92.2  78.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  59.0  71.0  67.0  47.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   92.0  91.0  88.0  92.0  92.0  93.0  90.0  90.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.2  38.1  43.6  44.9  45.6  50.6  52.8  52.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%