Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    168.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  17.5  18.9  19.5  17.6  20.9  23.5  20.3  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  74.0  88.0 102.0  91.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   8.0  25.0  33.0  73.0  34.0  13.0  21.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.2  17.5  18.9  19.5  17.6  20.9  23.5  20.3  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        9.3%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h       23.7%       47.3%       35.5%
 30kt / 24h       15.2%       24.1%       19.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%       23.5%       14.8%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%       12.2%        9.2%
 45kt / 36h       25.2%       61.8%       43.5%
 55kt / 36h       22.2%       41.8%       32.0%
 55kt / 48h       38.1%       35.4%       36.7%
 70kt / 48h       23.3%       21.6%       22.5%
 65kt / 72h       49.9%       50.7%       50.3%